Goings-on in SF -- Week of April 24-30
Happy Sunday, Republicans –
Two recalls, two special elections, a primary, a general election, redistricting, and more. 2022 in San Francisco is the Barkley Marathons of local politics. Only the strong will survive. Good to see you all made it another week :-)
Stuff you should know
One guy who didn’t survive the past week is David Campos, current Chief of Staff to District Attorney Chesa Boudin, former District 9 Supervisor, part-time Ukrainian freedom fighter, and newly-crowned two-time loser for the State Assembly seat in AD-17. District 6 Supervisor Matt Haney defeated Campos for the seat last Tuesday in what can only be described as a “brutal shellacking” (that’s a technical term). Some observations:
Haney didn’t just win with nearly ⅔ of the vote, he won nearly every single precinct, and even beat Campos in what was supposed to be the latter’s stronghold, the Mission.
The initial reactions by Campos and his allies, including District 5 Supervisor Dean Preston, were predictable: ‘We lost because big money and real estate interests bought the election, and 63% of voters can’t think for themselves.’ Especially for Preston, this is a risky stance to adopt. Many of the precincts that Haney won with 70% of the vote or more are in Preston’s district – which, after redistricting, is expected to absorb the Tenderloin, where Haney is extremely popular. Whoever runs for D5 Supervisor in 2024 is going to need Haney’s endorsement, and it’s hard to see Preston getting it with these kinds of statements.
The consensus post-mortem in the media is that Haney made this a race about housing, and Campos foolishly played into that framing. “Foolishly,” because Campos failed to realize that the YIMBY pro-housing message is considerably more powerful and popular in San Francisco than it was four years ago, when Haney defeated YIMBY co-founder Sonja Trauss in the race for D6 Supervisor.
Is that consensus accurate? Maybe. But it’s worth remembering that race in 2018 when Trauss lost handily, as well as the fact that the candidate originally endorsed by YIMBYs in February’s primary for the AD17 seat, Bilal Mahmood, came in third in a four-person race. Back in 2020, YIMBY-endorsed candidates Marjan Philhour, Danny Sauter, and Vallie Brown all lost their races. YIMBYs have backed some winners over the past few years (notably, London Breed, Scott Wiener, David Chiu, Ahsha Safai, and – in a devil’s bargain sop to the left that has turned out to be a raw deal for housing activists – Myrna Melgar), but, like Haney, most of those candidates were already front-runners. One of the cardinal sins of politics is to believe that the electorate voted for you when in fact they were really just voting against the other guy. There’s a non-trivial chance that the real story of this AD17 race is pretty simple: one unremarkable candidate who everyone thinks is personally inoffensive beat another unremarkable candidate who everyone thinks is kind of a jerk.
Notably, Campos’ defeat in this special election paired with the likelihood that no Democrat will run against Haney opens the door for Republican candidate Bill Shireman to finish among the top-two vote getters for the AD17 seat in June, thereby advancing to the November runoff.
Speaking of elections, don’t forget to contact volunteers@sfgop.org to help text bank, table, and door knock for a number of important items on the ballot this June, including the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin, as well as primaries for Republican candidates John Dennis (CD11), Gus Mattammal (CD15), Bill Shireman (AD17) and Karsten Weide (AD19).
You’re a Republican, but do you know what that means? Ever wanted to better understand the intellectual heritage of the conservative movement in America? On Monday, May 2, the Commonwealth Club of California will be livestreaming a discussion with Matthew Continetti, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of a new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War for American Conservatism.
City Hall
Wednesday, April 27 at 1:00pm: Regularly scheduled meeting of the Budget and Appropriations Committee (agenda and call-in instructions here)
Item 1 is a hearing on the cleaving away of certain responsibilities from the Department of Public Works and the housing of them in a newly established Department of Sanitation and Streets. This bifurcation was originally conceived by Supervisor Haney, and was approved by voters under Proposition B in 2020. San Franciscans were then (and still are) justifiably frustrated by the state of our city’s streets, as well as the ever-unfolding corruption scandal at DPW. But there are reasons to be skeptical of this new arrangement, not least of which is that it affords increased power to the Board of Supervisors – arguably the most corrupt and incompetent element of our municipal government.
Thursday, April 28 at 10:00am: Regularly scheduled meeting of the Public Safety and Neighborhood Services Committee (agenda and call-in instructions here)
Item 1 proposes an ordinance that would, among other things, require the SFPD to create plans to deploy bicycle and foot patrols in each precinct. On its face, this seems like a good thing. There’s extensive evidence that increased police presence and visibility meaningfully reduces crime. Of course, it’s the “among other things” part that bears additional scrutiny.
Other items of interest
It’s not every day that the most widely read newspaper in California endorses a Republican for statewide office, but the LA Times did just that this week, recommending voters elect Lanhee Chen to the office of Controller. It bears mentioning that the SFGOP endorsed Chen back in March, before it was cool.
Like something out of a Monty Python bit, it appears that the only person in San Francisco gullible enough to believe the city’s official crime data is the Chronicle’s own self-proclaimed “data reporter” (no formal training or experience in data analysis required), Susie Nielsen. Lou Barberini’s latest takes her to task over claims like ‘there are only 10 shoplifting incidents per day in the entire city of San Francisco.’
On that note, a teensy bit of national news – but only because it intersects with an issue that is top of mind for local voters: crime. New polling numbers are out, and Biden’s job approval rating is not great, Bob! Importantly, he seems to be struggling with key demographics traditionally considered “safe Democrat,” including young people, Latinos, and black Americans. Surprising? Not really, if you consider that the number one issue by far named by black adults as the most important facing their communities is crime/violence. Like the rest of us, they too remember Democrats’ wholehearted embrace of this nonsense in 2020.
Finally, to anyone out there who needs reminding: If you’re flying out of SFO please do not antagonize the former world heavyweight champion.
Regards,
Jay Donde
Political Affairs Vice Chair
San Francisco Republican Party
